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Znamya Truda vs Volgar Astrakhan — Cup 2019

Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Volgar Astrakhan
Volgar Astrakhan
9/27/2023CupCup · Regions Path - 4th RoundSportkompleks Znamja Truda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Znamya Truda38%
×Draw27%
Volgar Astrakhan35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Truda
1.31
Volgar Astrakhan
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Znamya Truda
1.25
Volgar Astrakhan
1.50

allows per match

Znamya Truda
1.00
Volgar Astrakhan
1.38

finishing

Znamya Truda+0.00on par
Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Truda ↓

Volgar Astrakhan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Znamya Truda or draw
65%
Znamya Truda or Volgar Astrakhan
73%
Draw or Volgar Astrakhan
62%

Winning margin

Znamya Truda wins by 2+
17%
Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Znamya Truda 1+ goals
73%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
38%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
14%
Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals
71%
Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals
36%
Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
52%
Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Truda at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Volgar Astrakhan away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Truda attack 1.25 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Volgar Astrakhan attack 1.50 + Znamya Truda defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Znamya Truda scores more
38%
level
27%
Volgar Astrakhan scores more
35%

Znamya Truda at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Znamya Truda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Znamya Truda vs Volgar Astrakhan

Volgar Astrakhan beat Znamya Truda 3-1 in Cup on September 27, 2023.

The match was played at Sportkompleks Znamja Truda in Orekhovo-Zuyevo.