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Znamya Truda vs Tekstilshchik — Second League - Group 2 2020

Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tekstilshchik
Tekstilshchik
9/26/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 13Sportkompleks Znamja Truda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Znamya Truda30%
×Draw27%
Tekstilshchik43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Truda
1.09
Tekstilshchik
1.36

Tekstilshchik creates 25% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 16 away

creates per match

Znamya Truda
1.05
Tekstilshchik
1.25

allows per match

Znamya Truda
1.48
Tekstilshchik
1.13

finishing

Znamya Truda+0.00on par
Tekstilshchik+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Truda ↓

Tekstilshchik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Znamya Truda or draw
57%
Znamya Truda or Tekstilshchik
73%
Draw or Tekstilshchik
70%

Winning margin

Znamya Truda wins by 2+
12%
Tekstilshchik wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Znamya Truda 1+ goals
66%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
30%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
10%
Tekstilshchik 1+ goals
74%
Tekstilshchik 2+ goals
39%
Tekstilshchik 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
41%
Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Truda at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.48 · 66 matches

Tekstilshchik away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Truda attack 1.05 + Tekstilshchik defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.09

Tekstilshchik attack 1.25 + Znamya Truda defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Znamya Truda scores more
30%
level
27%
Tekstilshchik scores more
43%

Tekstilshchik at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tekstilshchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Znamya Truda vs Tekstilshchik

Tekstilshchik beat Znamya Truda 1-0 in Second League - Group 2 on September 26, 2022.

The match was played at Sportkompleks Znamja Truda in Orekhovo-Zuyevo.