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Znamya Truda vs SKA Khabarovsk II — Second League - Group 3 2020

Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
SKA Khabarovsk II
SKA Khabarovsk II
9/20/2025Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Znamya Truda59%
×Draw22%
SKA Khabarovsk II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Truda
1.98
SKA Khabarovsk II
1.03

Znamya Truda creates 92% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 76 away

creates per match

Znamya Truda
2.00
SKA Khabarovsk II
1.13

allows per match

Znamya Truda
0.93
SKA Khabarovsk II
1.96

finishing

Znamya Truda+0.00on par
SKA Khabarovsk II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Truda ↓

SKA Khabarovsk II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Znamya Truda or draw
81%
Znamya Truda or SKA Khabarovsk II
78%
Draw or SKA Khabarovsk II
41%

Winning margin

Znamya Truda wins by 2+
35%
SKA Khabarovsk II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Znamya Truda 1+ goals
86%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
59%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
31%
SKA Khabarovsk II 1+ goals
64%
SKA Khabarovsk II 2+ goals
28%
SKA Khabarovsk II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
76%
SKA Khabarovsk II (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Truda at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

SKA Khabarovsk II away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.96 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Truda attack 2.00 + SKA Khabarovsk II defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.98

SKA Khabarovsk II attack 1.13 + Znamya Truda defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Znamya Truda scores more
59%
level
22%
SKA Khabarovsk II scores more
19%

Znamya Truda at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Znamya Truda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Znamya Truda vs SKA Khabarovsk II

SKA Khabarovsk II beat Znamya Truda 2-1 in Second League - Group 3 on September 20, 2025.