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Znamya Truda vs Saturn Ramenskoye — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
FT
0 – 0
Saturn Ramenskoye
Saturn Ramenskoye
3/22/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Znamya Truda34%
×Draw28%
Saturn Ramenskoye38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Truda
1.17
Saturn Ramenskoye
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Znamya Truda
0.33
Saturn Ramenskoye
1.17

allows per match

Znamya Truda
1.33
Saturn Ramenskoye
2.00

finishing

Znamya Truda+0.00on par
Saturn Ramenskoye+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Truda ↓

Saturn Ramenskoye →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Znamya Truda or draw
62%
Znamya Truda or Saturn Ramenskoye
72%
Draw or Saturn Ramenskoye
66%

Winning margin

Znamya Truda wins by 2+
14%
Saturn Ramenskoye wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Znamya Truda 1+ goals
69%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
33%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
11%
Saturn Ramenskoye 1+ goals
71%
Saturn Ramenskoye 2+ goals
36%
Saturn Ramenskoye 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
47%
Saturn Ramenskoye (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Truda at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Saturn Ramenskoye away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Truda attack 0.33 + Saturn Ramenskoye defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Saturn Ramenskoye attack 1.17 + Znamya Truda defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Znamya Truda scores more
34%
level
28%
Saturn Ramenskoye scores more
38%

Saturn Ramenskoye at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Saturn Ramenskoye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Znamya Truda vs Saturn Ramenskoye

Znamya Truda and Saturn Ramenskoye drew 0-0 in Friendlies Clubs on March 22, 2020.