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Znamya Truda vs Salyut-Belgorod — Second League - Group 3 2020

Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Salyut-Belgorod
Salyut-Belgorod
6/15/2025Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 12SportComplex Znamja Truda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Znamya Truda41%
×Draw25%
Salyut-Belgorod33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Truda
1.50
Salyut-Belgorod
1.32

Znamya Truda creates 14% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 85 away

creates per match

Znamya Truda
2.00
Salyut-Belgorod
1.71

allows per match

Znamya Truda
0.93
Salyut-Belgorod
1.00

finishing

Znamya Truda+0.00on par
Salyut-Belgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Truda ↓

Salyut-Belgorod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Znamya Truda or draw
67%
Znamya Truda or Salyut-Belgorod
75%
Draw or Salyut-Belgorod
59%

Winning margin

Znamya Truda wins by 2+
20%
Salyut-Belgorod wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Znamya Truda 1+ goals
78%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
44%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
19%
Salyut-Belgorod 1+ goals
73%
Salyut-Belgorod 2+ goals
38%
Salyut-Belgorod 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
55%
Salyut-Belgorod (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Truda at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Salyut-Belgorod away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Truda attack 2.00 + Salyut-Belgorod defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Salyut-Belgorod attack 1.71 + Znamya Truda defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Znamya Truda scores more
41%
level
25%
Salyut-Belgorod scores more
33%

Znamya Truda at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Znamya Truda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Znamya Truda vs Salyut-Belgorod

Znamya Truda beat Salyut-Belgorod 2-0 in Second League - Group 3 on June 15, 2025.

The match was played at SportComplex Znamja Truda in Orekhovo-Zuyevo.