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Znamya Truda vs Peresvet Podolsk — Cup 2019

Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Peresvet Podolsk
Peresvet Podolsk
7/14/2021CupCup · 1st RoundStadion Torpedo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Znamya Truda56%
×Draw23%
Peresvet Podolsk21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Truda
1.79
Peresvet Podolsk
1.00

Znamya Truda creates 79% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

Znamya Truda
1.25
Peresvet Podolsk
1.00

allows per match

Znamya Truda
1.00
Peresvet Podolsk
2.33

finishing

Znamya Truda+0.00on par
Peresvet Podolsk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Truda ↓

Peresvet Podolsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Znamya Truda or draw
79%
Znamya Truda or Peresvet Podolsk
77%
Draw or Peresvet Podolsk
44%

Winning margin

Znamya Truda wins by 2+
32%
Peresvet Podolsk wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Znamya Truda 1+ goals
83%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
53%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
26%
Peresvet Podolsk 1+ goals
63%
Peresvet Podolsk 2+ goals
26%
Peresvet Podolsk 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
73%
Peresvet Podolsk (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Truda at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Peresvet Podolsk away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Truda attack 1.25 + Peresvet Podolsk defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.79

Peresvet Podolsk attack 1.00 + Znamya Truda defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Znamya Truda scores more
56%
level
23%
Peresvet Podolsk scores more
21%

Znamya Truda at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Znamya Truda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Znamya Truda vs Peresvet Podolsk

Znamya Truda and Peresvet Podolsk drew 1-1 in Cup on July 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Torpedo in Orekhovo-Zuyevo.