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Znamya Truda vs Luki-Energiya — Second League - Group 2 2020

Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Luki-Energiya
Luki-Energiya
9/20/2020Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 7Stadion Torpedo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Znamya Truda42%
×Draw27%
Luki-Energiya32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Truda
1.36
Luki-Energiya
1.15

Znamya Truda creates 18% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 87 away

creates per match

Znamya Truda
1.05
Luki-Energiya
0.82

allows per match

Znamya Truda
1.48
Luki-Energiya
1.67

finishing

Znamya Truda+0.00on par
Luki-Energiya+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Truda ↓

Luki-Energiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Znamya Truda or draw
68%
Znamya Truda or Luki-Energiya
73%
Draw or Luki-Energiya
58%

Winning margin

Znamya Truda wins by 2+
19%
Luki-Energiya wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Znamya Truda 1+ goals
74%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
39%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
16%
Luki-Energiya 1+ goals
68%
Luki-Energiya 2+ goals
32%
Luki-Energiya 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
57%
Luki-Energiya (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Truda at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.48 · 66 matches

Luki-Energiya away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.67 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Truda attack 1.05 + Luki-Energiya defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.36

Luki-Energiya attack 0.82 + Znamya Truda defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Znamya Truda scores more
42%
level
27%
Luki-Energiya scores more
32%

Znamya Truda at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Znamya Truda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Znamya Truda vs Luki-Energiya

Znamya Truda beat Luki-Energiya 2-1 in Second League - Group 2 on September 20, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Torpedo in Orekhovo-Zuyevo.