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Luki-Energiya vs Znamya Truda — Second League - Group 2 2020

Luki-Energiya
Luki-Energiya
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
5/5/2024Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Stadion Ekspress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Luki-Energiya43%
×Draw26%
Znamya Truda30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luki-Energiya
1.43
Znamya Truda
1.15

Luki-Energiya creates 24% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 68 away

creates per match

Luki-Energiya
1.27
Znamya Truda
1.07

allows per match

Luki-Energiya
1.22
Znamya Truda
1.59

finishing

Luki-Energiya+0.00on par
Znamya Truda+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luki-Energiya ↓

Znamya Truda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Luki-Energiya or draw
70%
Luki-Energiya or Znamya Truda
74%
Draw or Znamya Truda
57%

Winning margin

Luki-Energiya wins by 2+
21%
Znamya Truda wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Luki-Energiya 1+ goals
76%
Luki-Energiya 2+ goals
42%
Luki-Energiya 3+ goals
17%
Znamya Truda 1+ goals
68%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
32%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Luki-Energiya (draw refunded)
59%
Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luki-Energiya at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.22 · 90 matches

Znamya Truda away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.59 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luki-Energiya attack 1.27 + Znamya Truda defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.43

Znamya Truda attack 1.07 + Luki-Energiya defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Luki-Energiya scores more
43%
level
26%
Znamya Truda scores more
30%

Luki-Energiya at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Luki-Energiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Luki-Energiya vs Znamya Truda

Luki-Energiya and Znamya Truda drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 2 on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Ekspress in Velikiye Luki.