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Znamya Truda vs Khimik Dzerzhinsk — Second League - Group 2 2020

Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
11/5/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Sportkompleks Znamja Truda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Znamya Truda38%
×Draw25%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Truda
1.42
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 38 away

creates per match

Znamya Truda
1.05
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.34

allows per match

Znamya Truda
1.48
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.79

finishing

Znamya Truda+0.00on par
Khimik Dzerzhinsk+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Truda ↓

Khimik Dzerzhinsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Znamya Truda or draw
63%
Znamya Truda or Khimik Dzerzhinsk
75%
Draw or Khimik Dzerzhinsk
62%

Winning margin

Znamya Truda wins by 2+
18%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Znamya Truda 1+ goals
76%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
41%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
17%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk 1+ goals
76%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk 2+ goals
41%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
50%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Truda at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.48 · 66 matches

Khimik Dzerzhinsk away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.79 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Truda attack 1.05 + Khimik Dzerzhinsk defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.42

Khimik Dzerzhinsk attack 1.34 + Znamya Truda defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Znamya Truda scores more
38%
level
25%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk scores more
37%

Znamya Truda at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Znamya Truda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Znamya Truda vs Khimik Dzerzhinsk

Znamya Truda and Khimik Dzerzhinsk drew 2-2 in Second League - Group 2 on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Sportkompleks Znamja Truda in Orekhovo-Zuyevo.