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Znamya Truda vs FK Spartak Tambov — Second League - Group 3 2020

Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FK Spartak Tambov
FK Spartak Tambov
5/24/2025Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 9SportComplex Znamja Truda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Znamya Truda46%
×Draw25%
FK Spartak Tambov29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Truda
1.56
FK Spartak Tambov
1.17

Znamya Truda creates 33% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 63 away

creates per match

Znamya Truda
2.00
FK Spartak Tambov
1.41

allows per match

Znamya Truda
0.93
FK Spartak Tambov
1.13

finishing

Znamya Truda+0.00on par
FK Spartak Tambov+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Truda ↓

FK Spartak Tambov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Znamya Truda or draw
71%
Znamya Truda or FK Spartak Tambov
75%
Draw or FK Spartak Tambov
54%

Winning margin

Znamya Truda wins by 2+
24%
FK Spartak Tambov wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Znamya Truda 1+ goals
79%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
46%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
21%
FK Spartak Tambov 1+ goals
69%
FK Spartak Tambov 2+ goals
33%
FK Spartak Tambov 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
62%
FK Spartak Tambov (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Truda at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

FK Spartak Tambov away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Truda attack 2.00 + FK Spartak Tambov defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.56

FK Spartak Tambov attack 1.41 + Znamya Truda defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Znamya Truda scores more
46%
level
25%
FK Spartak Tambov scores more
29%

Znamya Truda at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Znamya Truda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Znamya Truda 1–0 FK Spartak Tambov

Znamya Truda beat FK Spartak Tambov 1-0 in Second League - Group 3 on May 24, 2025.

The match was played at SportComplex Znamja Truda in Orekhovo-Zuyevo.