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Znamya Truda vs FK Sokol Saratov — Cup 2019

Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FK Sokol Saratov
FK Sokol Saratov
9/2/2020CupCup · 3rd RoundStadion Znamya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Znamya Truda39%
×Draw28%
FK Sokol Saratov33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Truda
1.21
FK Sokol Saratov
1.08

Znamya Truda creates 12% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Znamya Truda
1.25
FK Sokol Saratov
1.17

allows per match

Znamya Truda
1.00
FK Sokol Saratov
1.17

finishing

Znamya Truda+0.00on par
FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Truda ↓

FK Sokol Saratov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Znamya Truda or draw
67%
Znamya Truda or FK Sokol Saratov
72%
Draw or FK Sokol Saratov
61%

Winning margin

Znamya Truda wins by 2+
17%
FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Znamya Truda 1+ goals
70%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
34%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
12%
FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals
66%
FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals
29%
FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
54%
FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Truda at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

FK Sokol Saratov away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Truda attack 1.25 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

FK Sokol Saratov attack 1.17 + Znamya Truda defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Znamya Truda scores more
39%
level
28%
FK Sokol Saratov scores more
33%

Znamya Truda at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Znamya Truda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Znamya Truda vs FK Sokol Saratov

Znamya Truda and FK Sokol Saratov drew 0-0 in Cup on September 2, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Znamya in Noginsk.