Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Znamya Truda vs Dinamo Vologda — Second League - Group 2 2020

Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Dinamo Vologda
Dinamo Vologda
10/24/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 18Sportkompleks Znamja Truda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Znamya Truda34%
×Draw27%
Dinamo Vologda39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Truda
1.19
Dinamo Vologda
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 60 away

creates per match

Znamya Truda
1.05
Dinamo Vologda
1.13

allows per match

Znamya Truda
1.48
Dinamo Vologda
1.32

finishing

Znamya Truda+0.00on par
Dinamo Vologda+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Truda ↓

Dinamo Vologda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Znamya Truda or draw
61%
Znamya Truda or Dinamo Vologda
73%
Draw or Dinamo Vologda
66%

Winning margin

Znamya Truda wins by 2+
14%
Dinamo Vologda wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Znamya Truda 1+ goals
70%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
33%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
12%
Dinamo Vologda 1+ goals
73%
Dinamo Vologda 2+ goals
37%
Dinamo Vologda 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
46%
Dinamo Vologda (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Truda at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.48 · 66 matches

Dinamo Vologda away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.32 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Truda attack 1.05 + Dinamo Vologda defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.19

Dinamo Vologda attack 1.13 + Znamya Truda defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Znamya Truda scores more
34%
level
27%
Dinamo Vologda scores more
39%

Dinamo Vologda at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dinamo Vologda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Znamya Truda vs Dinamo Vologda

Dinamo Vologda beat Znamya Truda 2-1 in Second League - Group 2 on October 24, 2022.

The match was played at Sportkompleks Znamja Truda in Orekhovo-Zuyevo.