Znamya Truda 1–2 Dinamo Moskva II: Result & Stats

Znamya Truda

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo Moskva II

9/18/2022

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 11Sportkompleks Znamja Truda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Znamya Truda29%

×Draw26%

Dinamo Moskva II45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Znamya TrudaExpected goals in this matchDinamo Moskva II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.47

Znamya Truda

1.11

Dinamo Moskva II

1.47

Dinamo Moskva II creates 32% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 70 away

1.05

creates per match

1.46

1.48

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Znamya Truda

1.05

Dinamo Moskva II

1.46

allows per match

Znamya Truda

1.48

Dinamo Moskva II

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Znamya Truda+0.00on par

Dinamo Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Truda ↓

Dinamo Moskva II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Znamya Truda or draw

55%

Znamya Truda or Dinamo Moskva II

74%

Draw or Dinamo Moskva II

71%

Winning margin

Znamya Truda wins by 2+

11%

Dinamo Moskva II wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Znamya Truda 1+ goals

67%

Znamya Truda 2+ goals

30%

Znamya Truda 3+ goals

10%

Dinamo Moskva II 1+ goals

77%

Dinamo Moskva II 2+ goals

43%

Dinamo Moskva II 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Znamya Truda (draw refunded)

39%

Dinamo Moskva II (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Truda at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.48 · 66 matches

Dinamo Moskva II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.17 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Truda attack 1.05 + Dinamo Moskva II defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.11

Dinamo Moskva II attack 1.46 + Znamya Truda defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Znamya Truda scores more

29%

level

26%

Dinamo Moskva II scores more

45%

Dinamo Moskva II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dinamo Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff