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Znamya Truda vs Dinamo Bryansk — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
FT
0 – 3
Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
2/29/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Znamya Truda18%
×Draw34%
Dinamo Bryansk47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Truda
0.52
Dinamo Bryansk
1.02

Dinamo Bryansk creates 96% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Znamya Truda
0.33
Dinamo Bryansk
0.71

allows per match

Znamya Truda
1.33
Dinamo Bryansk
0.71

finishing

Znamya Truda+0.00on par
Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Truda ↓

Dinamo Bryansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–122%
0–211%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
46%54%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Znamya Truda or draw
53%
Znamya Truda or Dinamo Bryansk
66%
Draw or Dinamo Bryansk
82%

Winning margin

Znamya Truda wins by 2+
4%
Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Znamya Truda 1+ goals
41%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
10%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
2%
Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
64%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
27%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
28%
Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Truda at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Dinamo Bryansk away — creates 0.71, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Truda attack 0.33 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.52

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.71 + Znamya Truda defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Znamya Truda scores more
18%
level
34%
Dinamo Bryansk scores more
47%

Dinamo Bryansk at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dinamo Bryansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Znamya Truda 0–3 Dinamo Bryansk

Dinamo Bryansk beat Znamya Truda 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 29, 2020.