Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Znamya Truda vs Dinamo Barnaul — Cup 2019

Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dinamo Barnaul
Dinamo Barnaul
V. Morozov 84'
V. Agalakov 10'
S. Mikhailin 56'
8/20/2025CupCup · Regions Path - 2nd RoundSportkompleks Znamja Truda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Znamya Truda45%
×Draw27%
Dinamo Barnaul29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Truda
1.41
Dinamo Barnaul
1.07

Znamya Truda creates 32% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Znamya Truda
1.25
Dinamo Barnaul
1.14

allows per match

Znamya Truda
1.00
Dinamo Barnaul
1.57

finishing

Znamya Truda+0.00on par
Dinamo Barnaul+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Truda ↓

Dinamo Barnaul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Znamya Truda or draw
71%
Znamya Truda or Dinamo Barnaul
73%
Draw or Dinamo Barnaul
55%

Winning margin

Znamya Truda wins by 2+
21%
Dinamo Barnaul wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Znamya Truda 1+ goals
76%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
41%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
17%
Dinamo Barnaul 1+ goals
66%
Dinamo Barnaul 2+ goals
29%
Dinamo Barnaul 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
61%
Dinamo Barnaul (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Truda at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Dinamo Barnaul away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Truda attack 1.25 + Dinamo Barnaul defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.41

Dinamo Barnaul attack 1.14 + Znamya Truda defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Znamya Truda scores more
45%
level
27%
Dinamo Barnaul scores more
29%

Znamya Truda at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Znamya Truda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
V. Agalakov
56'
S. Mikhailin
84'
V. Morozov
Znamya
Dinamo
A. Dantsev
Manager: A. Dantsev
O. Sergeev
Manager: O. Sergeev

Cup: Znamya Truda 2–1 Dinamo Barnaul

Znamya Truda beat Dinamo Barnaul 2-1 in Cup on August 20, 2025.

Goals: V. Agalakov (10'), S. Mikhailin (56'), V. Morozov (84').

The match was played at Sportkompleks Znamja Truda in Orekhovo-Zuyevo.