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Znamya Truda vs Chertanovo Moscow — Second League - Group 2 2020

Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
9/10/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 9Sportkompleks Znamja Truda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Znamya Truda32%
×Draw25%
Chertanovo Moscow44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Truda
1.29
Chertanovo Moscow
1.56

Chertanovo Moscow creates 21% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 66 away

creates per match

Znamya Truda
1.05
Chertanovo Moscow
1.65

allows per match

Znamya Truda
1.48
Chertanovo Moscow
1.52

finishing

Znamya Truda+0.00on par
Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Truda ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Znamya Truda or draw
56%
Znamya Truda or Chertanovo Moscow
75%
Draw or Chertanovo Moscow
68%

Winning margin

Znamya Truda wins by 2+
14%
Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Znamya Truda 1+ goals
72%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
37%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
14%
Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
79%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
46%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
42%
Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Truda at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.48 · 66 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.52 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Truda attack 1.05 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.29

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.65 + Znamya Truda defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Znamya Truda scores more
32%
level
25%
Chertanovo Moscow scores more
44%

Chertanovo Moscow at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chertanovo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Znamya Truda 1–0 Chertanovo Moscow

Znamya Truda beat Chertanovo Moscow 1-0 in Second League - Group 2 on September 10, 2021.

The match was played at Sportkompleks Znamja Truda in Orekhovo-Zuyevo.