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Chertanovo Moscow vs Znamya Truda — Second League - Group 2 2020

Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
7/15/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Stadion Yantar'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Chertanovo Moscow47%
×Draw25%
Znamya Truda28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chertanovo Moscow
1.57
Znamya Truda
1.15

Chertanovo Moscow creates 37% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 68 away

creates per match

Chertanovo Moscow
1.55
Znamya Truda
1.07

allows per match

Chertanovo Moscow
1.23
Znamya Truda
1.59

finishing

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par
Znamya Truda+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo Moscow ↓

Znamya Truda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Chertanovo Moscow or draw
72%
Chertanovo Moscow or Znamya Truda
75%
Draw or Znamya Truda
53%

Winning margin

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
24%
Znamya Truda wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
79%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
46%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
21%
Znamya Truda 1+ goals
68%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
32%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
63%
Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo Moscow at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.23 · 65 matches

Znamya Truda away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.59 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.55 + Znamya Truda defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.57

Znamya Truda attack 1.07 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Chertanovo Moscow scores more
47%
level
25%
Znamya Truda scores more
28%

Chertanovo Moscow at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Chertanovo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Chertanovo Moscow 5–0 Znamya Truda

Chertanovo Moscow beat Znamya Truda 5-0 in Second League - Group 2 on July 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Yantar' in Moskva.