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Znamya Truda vs Arsenal Tula II — Second League - Group 3 2020

Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Arsenal Tula II
Arsenal Tula II
7/26/2025Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Znamya Truda56%
×Draw23%
Arsenal Tula II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Truda
1.84
Arsenal Tula II
1.06

Znamya Truda creates 74% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 77 away

creates per match

Znamya Truda
2.00
Arsenal Tula II
1.19

allows per match

Znamya Truda
0.93
Arsenal Tula II
1.68

finishing

Znamya Truda+0.00on par
Arsenal Tula II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Truda ↓

Arsenal Tula II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Znamya Truda or draw
78%
Znamya Truda or Arsenal Tula II
77%
Draw or Arsenal Tula II
44%

Winning margin

Znamya Truda wins by 2+
32%
Arsenal Tula II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Znamya Truda 1+ goals
84%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
55%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
28%
Arsenal Tula II 1+ goals
65%
Arsenal Tula II 2+ goals
29%
Arsenal Tula II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
72%
Arsenal Tula II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Truda at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Arsenal Tula II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.68 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Truda attack 2.00 + Arsenal Tula II defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.84

Arsenal Tula II attack 1.19 + Znamya Truda defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Znamya Truda scores more
56%
level
23%
Arsenal Tula II scores more
22%

Znamya Truda at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Znamya Truda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Znamya Truda vs Arsenal Tula II

Znamya Truda and Arsenal Tula II drew 0-0 in Second League - Group 3 on July 26, 2025.