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Znamya Truda vs Arsenal Tula — Cup 2019

Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
9/26/2024CupCup · Regions Path - 4th RoundSportkompleks Znamja Truda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Znamya Truda28%
×Draw25%
Arsenal Tula47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Truda
1.13
Arsenal Tula
1.55

Arsenal Tula creates 37% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

creates per match

Znamya Truda
1.25
Arsenal Tula
2.10

allows per match

Znamya Truda
1.00
Arsenal Tula
1.00

finishing

Znamya Truda+0.00on par
Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Truda ↓

Arsenal Tula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Znamya Truda or draw
53%
Znamya Truda or Arsenal Tula
75%
Draw or Arsenal Tula
72%

Winning margin

Znamya Truda wins by 2+
11%
Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Znamya Truda 1+ goals
68%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
31%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
11%
Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
79%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
46%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
37%
Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Truda at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Arsenal Tula away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Truda attack 1.25 + Arsenal Tula defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Arsenal Tula attack 2.10 + Znamya Truda defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Znamya Truda scores more
28%
level
25%
Arsenal Tula scores more
47%

Arsenal Tula at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Arsenal Tula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Znamya Truda vs Arsenal Tula

Znamya Truda and Arsenal Tula drew 1-1 in Cup on September 26, 2024.

The match was played at Sportkompleks Znamja Truda in Orekhovo-Zuyevo.