Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Znamya Noginsk vs Znamya Truda — Cup 2019

Znamya Noginsk
Znamya Noginsk
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Znamya Truda
Znamya Truda
8/5/2020CupCup · 1st RoundStadion Torpedo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Znamya Noginsk37%
×Draw24%
Znamya Truda39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Noginsk
1.48
Znamya Truda
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Znamya Noginsk
1.38
Znamya Truda
0.71

allows per match

Znamya Noginsk
2.38
Znamya Truda
1.57

finishing

Znamya Noginsk+0.00on par
Znamya Truda+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Noginsk ↓

Znamya Truda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Znamya Noginsk or draw
61%
Znamya Noginsk or Znamya Truda
76%
Draw or Znamya Truda
63%

Winning margin

Znamya Noginsk wins by 2+
17%
Znamya Truda wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Znamya Noginsk 1+ goals
77%
Znamya Noginsk 2+ goals
43%
Znamya Noginsk 3+ goals
19%
Znamya Truda 1+ goals
79%
Znamya Truda 2+ goals
45%
Znamya Truda 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Znamya Noginsk (draw refunded)
48%
Znamya Truda (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Noginsk at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

Znamya Truda away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Noginsk attack 1.38 + Znamya Truda defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

Znamya Truda attack 0.71 + Znamya Noginsk defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Znamya Noginsk scores more
37%
level
24%
Znamya Truda scores more
39%

Znamya Truda at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Znamya Truda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Znamya Noginsk 1–0 Znamya Truda

Znamya Noginsk beat Znamya Truda 1-0 in Cup on August 5, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Torpedo in Orekhovo-Zuyevo.