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Znamya Noginsk vs SKA Khabarovsk II — Second League - Group 3 2020

Znamya Noginsk
Znamya Noginsk
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
SKA Khabarovsk II
SKA Khabarovsk II
9/26/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 12Stadion Znamya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Znamya Noginsk50%
×Draw23%
SKA Khabarovsk II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Noginsk
1.77
SKA Khabarovsk II
1.25

Znamya Noginsk creates 42% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 76 away

creates per match

Znamya Noginsk
1.59
SKA Khabarovsk II
1.13

allows per match

Znamya Noginsk
1.36
SKA Khabarovsk II
1.96

finishing

Znamya Noginsk+0.00on par
SKA Khabarovsk II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Noginsk ↓

SKA Khabarovsk II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Znamya Noginsk or draw
73%
Znamya Noginsk or SKA Khabarovsk II
77%
Draw or SKA Khabarovsk II
50%

Winning margin

Znamya Noginsk wins by 2+
27%
SKA Khabarovsk II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Znamya Noginsk 1+ goals
83%
Znamya Noginsk 2+ goals
53%
Znamya Noginsk 3+ goals
26%
SKA Khabarovsk II 1+ goals
71%
SKA Khabarovsk II 2+ goals
36%
SKA Khabarovsk II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Znamya Noginsk (draw refunded)
65%
SKA Khabarovsk II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Noginsk at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

SKA Khabarovsk II away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.96 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Noginsk attack 1.59 + SKA Khabarovsk II defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.77

SKA Khabarovsk II attack 1.13 + Znamya Noginsk defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Znamya Noginsk scores more
50%
level
23%
SKA Khabarovsk II scores more
27%

Znamya Noginsk at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Znamya Noginsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Znamya Noginsk 1–0 SKA Khabarovsk II

Znamya Noginsk beat SKA Khabarovsk II 1-0 in Second League - Group 3 on September 26, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Znamya in Noginsk.