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Znamya Noginsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — Cup 2019

Znamya Noginsk
Znamya Noginsk
FT
3 – 0
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
10/1/2020CupCup · Group Stage - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Znamya Noginsk27%
×Draw22%
Shinnik Yaroslavl51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Noginsk
1.40
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.98

Shinnik Yaroslavl creates 41% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Znamya Noginsk
1.38
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.57

allows per match

Znamya Noginsk
2.38
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.43

finishing

Znamya Noginsk+0.00on par
Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Noginsk ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Znamya Noginsk or draw
49%
Znamya Noginsk or Shinnik Yaroslavl
78%
Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl
73%

Winning margin

Znamya Noginsk wins by 2+
12%
Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Znamya Noginsk 1+ goals
75%
Znamya Noginsk 2+ goals
41%
Znamya Noginsk 3+ goals
17%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
86%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
59%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Znamya Noginsk (draw refunded)
35%
Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Noginsk at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Noginsk attack 1.38 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.57 + Znamya Noginsk defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Znamya Noginsk scores more
27%
level
22%
Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
51%

Shinnik Yaroslavl at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Shinnik Yaroslavl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Znamya Noginsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl

Znamya Noginsk beat Shinnik Yaroslavl 3-0 in Cup on October 1, 2020.