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Znamya Noginsk vs Krylya Sovetov — Cup 2019

Znamya Noginsk
Znamya Noginsk
FT
0 – 10
HT: 0 – 4
Krylya Sovetov
Krylya Sovetov
9/22/2021CupCup · Group Stage - 3Stadion Znamya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Znamya Noginsk30%
×Draw22%
Krylya Sovetov48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Noginsk
1.53
Krylya Sovetov
1.96

Krylya Sovetov creates 28% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 19 away

creates per match

Znamya Noginsk
1.38
Krylya Sovetov
1.53

allows per match

Znamya Noginsk
2.38
Krylya Sovetov
1.68

finishing

Znamya Noginsk+0.00on par
Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Noginsk ↓

Krylya Sovetov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Znamya Noginsk or draw
52%
Znamya Noginsk or Krylya Sovetov
78%
Draw or Krylya Sovetov
70%

Winning margin

Znamya Noginsk wins by 2+
14%
Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Znamya Noginsk 1+ goals
78%
Znamya Noginsk 2+ goals
45%
Znamya Noginsk 3+ goals
20%
Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals
86%
Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals
58%
Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Znamya Noginsk (draw refunded)
39%
Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Noginsk at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

Krylya Sovetov away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Noginsk attack 1.38 + Krylya Sovetov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.53

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.53 + Znamya Noginsk defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Znamya Noginsk scores more
30%
level
22%
Krylya Sovetov scores more
48%

Krylya Sovetov at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Znamya Noginsk vs Krylya Sovetov

Krylya Sovetov beat Znamya Noginsk 10-0 in Cup on September 22, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Znamya in Noginsk.