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Znamya Noginsk vs Kosmos Dolgoprudny — Second League - Group 3 2020

Znamya Noginsk
Znamya Noginsk
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
8/14/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 6Stadion Znamya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Znamya Noginsk35%
×Draw25%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Noginsk
1.41
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 39 away

creates per match

Znamya Noginsk
1.59
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.67

allows per match

Znamya Noginsk
1.36
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.23

finishing

Znamya Noginsk+0.00on par
Kosmos Dolgoprudny+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Noginsk ↓

Kosmos Dolgoprudny →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Znamya Noginsk or draw
60%
Znamya Noginsk or Kosmos Dolgoprudny
75%
Draw or Kosmos Dolgoprudny
65%

Winning margin

Znamya Noginsk wins by 2+
16%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Znamya Noginsk 1+ goals
76%
Znamya Noginsk 2+ goals
41%
Znamya Noginsk 3+ goals
17%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny 1+ goals
78%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny 2+ goals
45%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Znamya Noginsk (draw refunded)
47%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Noginsk at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

Kosmos Dolgoprudny away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.23 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Noginsk attack 1.59 + Kosmos Dolgoprudny defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.41

Kosmos Dolgoprudny attack 1.67 + Znamya Noginsk defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Znamya Noginsk scores more
35%
level
25%
Kosmos Dolgoprudny scores more
40%

Kosmos Dolgoprudny at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kosmos Dolgoprudny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Znamya Noginsk 1–0 Kosmos Dolgoprudny

Znamya Noginsk beat Kosmos Dolgoprudny 1-0 in Second League - Group 3 on August 14, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Znamya in Noginsk.