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Znamya Noginsk vs Khimki II — Second League - Group 3 2020

Znamya Noginsk
Znamya Noginsk
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Khimki II
Khimki II
8/19/2023Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 5Stadion Znamya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Znamya Noginsk46%
×Draw24%
Khimki II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Noginsk
1.71
Khimki II
1.36

Znamya Noginsk creates 26% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 74 away

creates per match

Znamya Noginsk
1.59
Khimki II
1.36

allows per match

Znamya Noginsk
1.36
Khimki II
1.82

finishing

Znamya Noginsk+0.00on par
Khimki II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Noginsk ↓

Khimki II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Znamya Noginsk or draw
69%
Znamya Noginsk or Khimki II
76%
Draw or Khimki II
54%

Winning margin

Znamya Noginsk wins by 2+
24%
Khimki II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Znamya Noginsk 1+ goals
82%
Znamya Noginsk 2+ goals
51%
Znamya Noginsk 3+ goals
24%
Khimki II 1+ goals
74%
Khimki II 2+ goals
39%
Khimki II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Znamya Noginsk (draw refunded)
60%
Khimki II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Noginsk at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

Khimki II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.82 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Noginsk attack 1.59 + Khimki II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.71

Khimki II attack 1.36 + Znamya Noginsk defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Znamya Noginsk scores more
46%
level
24%
Khimki II scores more
31%

Znamya Noginsk at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Znamya Noginsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Znamya Noginsk vs Khimki II

Znamya Noginsk beat Khimki II 1-0 in Second League - Group 3 on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Znamya in Noginsk.