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Znamya Noginsk vs Kaluga — Second League - Group 3 2020

Znamya Noginsk
Znamya Noginsk
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Kaluga
Kaluga
10/15/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 16Sportkompleks Znamja Truda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Znamya Noginsk39%
×Draw26%
Kaluga34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Noginsk
1.35
Kaluga
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 55 away

creates per match

Znamya Noginsk
1.59
Kaluga
1.13

allows per match

Znamya Noginsk
1.36
Kaluga
1.11

finishing

Znamya Noginsk+0.00on par
Kaluga+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Noginsk ↓

Kaluga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Znamya Noginsk or draw
66%
Znamya Noginsk or Kaluga
74%
Draw or Kaluga
61%

Winning margin

Znamya Noginsk wins by 2+
18%
Kaluga wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Znamya Noginsk 1+ goals
74%
Znamya Noginsk 2+ goals
39%
Znamya Noginsk 3+ goals
15%
Kaluga 1+ goals
71%
Kaluga 2+ goals
36%
Kaluga 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Znamya Noginsk (draw refunded)
53%
Kaluga (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Noginsk at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

Kaluga away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.11 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Noginsk attack 1.59 + Kaluga defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.35

Kaluga attack 1.13 + Znamya Noginsk defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Znamya Noginsk scores more
39%
level
26%
Kaluga scores more
34%

Znamya Noginsk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Znamya Noginsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Znamya Noginsk vs Kaluga

Kaluga beat Znamya Noginsk 2-0 in Second League - Group 3 on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Sportkompleks Znamja Truda in Orekhovo-Zuyevo.