Znamya Noginsk 0–4 Enisey: Result & Stats | Cup

Znamya Noginsk

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

Enisey

8/25/2021

Cup · Group Stage - 2Stadion Znamya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Znamya Noginsk26%

×Draw23%

Enisey51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Znamya NoginskExpected goals in this matchEnisey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.82

Znamya Noginsk

1.23

Enisey

1.82

Enisey creates 48% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

1.38

creates per match

1.27

2.38

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Znamya Noginsk

1.38

Enisey

1.27

allows per match

Znamya Noginsk

2.38

Enisey

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Znamya Noginsk+0.00on par

Enisey+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Noginsk ↓

Enisey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Znamya Noginsk or draw

49%

Znamya Noginsk or Enisey

77%

Draw or Enisey

74%

Winning margin

Znamya Noginsk wins by 2+

11%

Enisey wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Znamya Noginsk 1+ goals

71%

Znamya Noginsk 2+ goals

35%

Znamya Noginsk 3+ goals

13%

Enisey 1+ goals

84%

Enisey 2+ goals

54%

Enisey 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Znamya Noginsk (draw refunded)

34%

Enisey (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Noginsk at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

Enisey away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Noginsk attack 1.38 + Enisey defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.23

Enisey attack 1.27 + Znamya Noginsk defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Znamya Noginsk scores more

26%

level

23%

Enisey scores more

51%

Enisey at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Enisey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff