Znamya Noginsk vs Avangard Kursk — Second League - Group 3 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 56+ matches
Znamya Noginsk42%
Avangard Kursk33%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Znamya Noginsk creates 17% more chances
Season form · 56 home / 57 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over54
- Under46
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes58
- No42
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Znamya Noginsk ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Znamya Noginsk at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches
Avangard Kursk away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.49 · 57 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Znamya Noginsk attack 1.59 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.54
Avangard Kursk attack 1.28 + Znamya Noginsk defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.32
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
Znamya Noginsk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "Znamya Noginsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Avangard Kursk substitutes
Head to Head
Metallurg Lipetsk
Ryazan
Saturn Ramenskoye
Salyut-Belgorod
FK Sokol Saratov
Strogino
Kaluga
Khimik-ArsenalZnamya Noginsk
Krasnyy-SGAFKSTAvangard Kursk
Khimki II
Kvant
Metallurg Vidnoye
Fakel II
SakhalinIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Znamya Noginsk host Avangard Kursk on Tuesday, 6 April 2021 at 13:00. The match is part of the Second League - Group 3 2020/2021 season.
Second League - Group 3: Znamya Noginsk 0–2 Avangard Kursk
Avangard Kursk beat Znamya Noginsk 2-0 in Second League - Group 3 on April 6, 2021.
Goals: S. Perederiy (57' o.g.), I. Bobryshov (67').
The match was played at Stadion Znamya in Noginsk.