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Znamya Noginsk vs Akhmat Grozny — Cup 2019

Znamya Noginsk
Znamya Noginsk
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Akhmat Grozny
Akhmat Grozny
9/17/2020CupCup · Group Stage - 1Stadion Znamya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Znamya Noginsk31%
×Draw23%
Akhmat Grozny47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Znamya Noginsk
1.45
Akhmat Grozny
1.83

Akhmat Grozny creates 26% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 21 away

creates per match

Znamya Noginsk
1.38
Akhmat Grozny
1.29

allows per match

Znamya Noginsk
2.38
Akhmat Grozny
1.52

finishing

Znamya Noginsk+0.00on par
Akhmat Grozny+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Znamya Noginsk ↓

Akhmat Grozny →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Znamya Noginsk or draw
53%
Znamya Noginsk or Akhmat Grozny
77%
Draw or Akhmat Grozny
69%

Winning margin

Znamya Noginsk wins by 2+
14%
Akhmat Grozny wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Znamya Noginsk 1+ goals
77%
Znamya Noginsk 2+ goals
42%
Znamya Noginsk 3+ goals
18%
Akhmat Grozny 1+ goals
84%
Akhmat Grozny 2+ goals
54%
Akhmat Grozny 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Znamya Noginsk (draw refunded)
40%
Akhmat Grozny (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Znamya Noginsk at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

Akhmat Grozny away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Znamya Noginsk attack 1.38 + Akhmat Grozny defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.45

Akhmat Grozny attack 1.29 + Znamya Noginsk defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Znamya Noginsk scores more
31%
level
23%
Akhmat Grozny scores more
47%

Akhmat Grozny at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Akhmat Grozny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Znamya Noginsk 0 – 3 Akhmat Grozny

Akhmat Grozny beat Znamya Noginsk 3-0 in Cup on September 17, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Znamya in Noginsk.