Zmaj Makarska 2–0 Urania Baška Voda: Result & Stats

Zmaj Makarska

FT

2 – 0

Urania Baška Voda

9/25/2021

Third NL - Jug · South - 6Stadion Podvornica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Zmaj Makarska55%

×Draw24%

Urania Baška Voda21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zmaj MakarskaExpected goals in this matchUrania Baška Voda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.94

Zmaj Makarska

1.70

Urania Baška Voda

0.94

Zmaj Makarska creates 81% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 57 away

1.28

creates per match

0.81

1.06

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Zmaj Makarska

1.28

Urania Baška Voda

0.81

allows per match

Zmaj Makarska

1.06

Urania Baška Voda

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zmaj Makarska+0.00on par

Urania Baška Voda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zmaj Makarska ↓

Urania Baška Voda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Zmaj Makarska or draw

79%

Zmaj Makarska or Urania Baška Voda

76%

Draw or Urania Baška Voda

45%

Winning margin

Zmaj Makarska wins by 2+

30%

Urania Baška Voda wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Zmaj Makarska 1+ goals

82%

Zmaj Makarska 2+ goals

51%

Zmaj Makarska 3+ goals

24%

Urania Baška Voda 1+ goals

61%

Urania Baška Voda 2+ goals

24%

Urania Baška Voda 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Zmaj Makarska (draw refunded)

73%

Urania Baška Voda (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zmaj Makarska at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.06 · 78 matches

Urania Baška Voda away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.12 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zmaj Makarska attack 1.28 + Urania Baška Voda defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.70

Urania Baška Voda attack 0.81 + Zmaj Makarska defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Zmaj Makarska scores more

55%

level

24%

Urania Baška Voda scores more

21%

Zmaj Makarska at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Zmaj Makarska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff