Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zmaj Makarska vs Sloga Mravince — Third NL - Jug 2019

Zmaj Makarska
Zmaj Makarska
FT
2 – 0
Sloga Mravince
Sloga Mravince
9/30/2020Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 7Gradski sportski centar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Zmaj Makarska44%
×Draw26%
Sloga Mravince30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zmaj Makarska
1.46
Sloga Mravince
1.16

Zmaj Makarska creates 26% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 102 away

creates per match

Zmaj Makarska
1.28
Sloga Mravince
1.25

allows per match

Zmaj Makarska
1.06
Sloga Mravince
1.65

finishing

Zmaj Makarska+0.00on par
Sloga Mravince+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zmaj Makarska ↓

Sloga Mravince →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Zmaj Makarska or draw
70%
Zmaj Makarska or Sloga Mravince
74%
Draw or Sloga Mravince
56%

Winning margin

Zmaj Makarska wins by 2+
21%
Sloga Mravince wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zmaj Makarska 1+ goals
77%
Zmaj Makarska 2+ goals
43%
Zmaj Makarska 3+ goals
18%
Sloga Mravince 1+ goals
69%
Sloga Mravince 2+ goals
32%
Sloga Mravince 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zmaj Makarska (draw refunded)
59%
Sloga Mravince (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zmaj Makarska at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.06 · 78 matches

Sloga Mravince away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.65 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zmaj Makarska attack 1.28 + Sloga Mravince defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sloga Mravince attack 1.25 + Zmaj Makarska defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zmaj Makarska scores more
44%
level
26%
Sloga Mravince scores more
30%

Zmaj Makarska at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zmaj Makarska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Zmaj Makarska 2–0 Sloga Mravince

Zmaj Makarska beat Sloga Mravince 2-0 in Third NL - Jug on September 30, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski sportski centar in Makarska.