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Sloga Mravince vs Zmaj Makarska — Third NL - Jug 2019

Sloga Mravince
Sloga Mravince
FT
4 – 2
Zmaj Makarska
Zmaj Makarska
11/26/2023Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 15Stadion Glavica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Sloga Mravince66%
×Draw20%
Zmaj Makarska14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloga Mravince
2.08
Zmaj Makarska
0.83

Sloga Mravince creates 151% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 78 away

creates per match

Sloga Mravince
1.95
Zmaj Makarska
0.64

allows per match

Sloga Mravince
1.03
Zmaj Makarska
2.21

finishing

Sloga Mravince+0.00on par
Zmaj Makarska+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Mravince ↓

Zmaj Makarska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sloga Mravince or draw
86%
Sloga Mravince or Zmaj Makarska
80%
Draw or Zmaj Makarska
34%

Winning margin

Sloga Mravince wins by 2+
42%
Zmaj Makarska wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sloga Mravince 1+ goals
87%
Sloga Mravince 2+ goals
61%
Sloga Mravince 3+ goals
34%
Zmaj Makarska 1+ goals
56%
Zmaj Makarska 2+ goals
20%
Zmaj Makarska 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sloga Mravince (draw refunded)
83%
Zmaj Makarska (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Mravince at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.03 · 102 matches

Zmaj Makarska away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.21 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Mravince attack 1.95 + Zmaj Makarska defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.08

Zmaj Makarska attack 0.64 + Sloga Mravince defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Sloga Mravince scores more
66%
level
20%
Zmaj Makarska scores more
14%

Sloga Mravince at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Sloga Mravince will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sloga Mravince vs Zmaj Makarska

Sloga Mravince beat Zmaj Makarska 4-2 in Third NL - Jug on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Glavica in Mravince.