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Zmaj Makarska vs Neretva Metković — Third NL - Jug 2019

Zmaj Makarska
Zmaj Makarska
FT
2 – 0
Neretva Metković
Neretva Metković
11/19/2023Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 14Gradski sportski centar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Zmaj Makarska44%
×Draw25%
Neretva Metković31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zmaj Makarska
1.52
Neretva Metković
1.25

Zmaj Makarska creates 22% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 102 away

creates per match

Zmaj Makarska
1.28
Neretva Metković
1.44

allows per match

Zmaj Makarska
1.06
Neretva Metković
1.77

finishing

Zmaj Makarska+0.00on par
Neretva Metković+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zmaj Makarska ↓

Neretva Metković →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Zmaj Makarska or draw
69%
Zmaj Makarska or Neretva Metković
75%
Draw or Neretva Metković
56%

Winning margin

Zmaj Makarska wins by 2+
22%
Neretva Metković wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Zmaj Makarska 1+ goals
78%
Zmaj Makarska 2+ goals
45%
Zmaj Makarska 3+ goals
20%
Neretva Metković 1+ goals
71%
Neretva Metković 2+ goals
36%
Neretva Metković 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Zmaj Makarska (draw refunded)
58%
Neretva Metković (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zmaj Makarska at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.06 · 78 matches

Neretva Metković away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.77 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zmaj Makarska attack 1.28 + Neretva Metković defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.52

Neretva Metković attack 1.44 + Zmaj Makarska defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zmaj Makarska scores more
44%
level
25%
Neretva Metković scores more
31%

Zmaj Makarska at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zmaj Makarska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Zmaj Makarska 2–0 Neretva Metković

Zmaj Makarska beat Neretva Metković 2-0 in Third NL - Jug on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski sportski centar in Makarska.