Zmaj Makarska 1–3 Kamen Ivanbegovina

Zmaj Makarska

FT

1 – 3

Kamen Ivanbegovina

5/31/2025

Third NL - Jug · South - 30Gradski sportski centar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Zmaj Makarska62%

×Draw21%

Kamen Ivanbegovina17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zmaj MakarskaExpected goals in this matchKamen Ivanbegovina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.93

Zmaj Makarska

2.00

Kamen Ivanbegovina

0.93

Zmaj Makarska creates 115% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 102 away

1.28

creates per match

0.80

1.06

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Zmaj Makarska

1.28

Kamen Ivanbegovina

0.80

allows per match

Zmaj Makarska

1.06

Kamen Ivanbegovina

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zmaj Makarska+0.00on par

Kamen Ivanbegovina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zmaj Makarska ↓

Kamen Ivanbegovina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Zmaj Makarska or draw

83%

Zmaj Makarska or Kamen Ivanbegovina

79%

Draw or Kamen Ivanbegovina

38%

Winning margin

Zmaj Makarska wins by 2+

38%

Kamen Ivanbegovina wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Zmaj Makarska 1+ goals

86%

Zmaj Makarska 2+ goals

59%

Zmaj Makarska 3+ goals

32%

Kamen Ivanbegovina 1+ goals

61%

Kamen Ivanbegovina 2+ goals

24%

Kamen Ivanbegovina 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Zmaj Makarska (draw refunded)

79%

Kamen Ivanbegovina (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zmaj Makarska at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.06 · 78 matches

Kamen Ivanbegovina away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.71 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zmaj Makarska attack 1.28 + Kamen Ivanbegovina defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.00

Kamen Ivanbegovina attack 0.80 + Zmaj Makarska defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Zmaj Makarska scores more

62%

level

21%

Kamen Ivanbegovina scores more

17%

Zmaj Makarska at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Zmaj Makarska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff