Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zmaj Makarska vs Hrvatski vitez — Third NL - Jug 2019

Zmaj Makarska
Zmaj Makarska
FT
3 – 3
Hrvatski vitez
Hrvatski vitez
4/6/2024Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 22Gradski sportski centar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Zmaj Makarska50%
×Draw25%
Hrvatski vitez25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zmaj Makarska
1.63
Hrvatski vitez
1.08

Zmaj Makarska creates 51% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 93 away

creates per match

Zmaj Makarska
1.28
Hrvatski vitez
1.11

allows per match

Zmaj Makarska
1.06
Hrvatski vitez
1.97

finishing

Zmaj Makarska+0.00on par
Hrvatski vitez+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zmaj Makarska ↓

Hrvatski vitez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Zmaj Makarska or draw
75%
Zmaj Makarska or Hrvatski vitez
75%
Draw or Hrvatski vitez
50%

Winning margin

Zmaj Makarska wins by 2+
26%
Hrvatski vitez wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zmaj Makarska 1+ goals
80%
Zmaj Makarska 2+ goals
48%
Zmaj Makarska 3+ goals
22%
Hrvatski vitez 1+ goals
66%
Hrvatski vitez 2+ goals
29%
Hrvatski vitez 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Zmaj Makarska (draw refunded)
67%
Hrvatski vitez (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zmaj Makarska at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.06 · 78 matches

Hrvatski vitez away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.97 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zmaj Makarska attack 1.28 + Hrvatski vitez defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.63

Hrvatski vitez attack 1.11 + Zmaj Makarska defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Zmaj Makarska scores more
50%
level
25%
Hrvatski vitez scores more
25%

Zmaj Makarska at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Zmaj Makarska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zmaj Makarska vs Hrvatski vitez

Zmaj Makarska and Hrvatski vitez drew 3-3 in Third NL - Jug on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski sportski centar in Makarska.