Zmaj Makarska 0–2 HNK Zadar: Result & Stats

Zmaj Makarska

FT

0 – 2

HNK Zadar

10/7/2023

Third NL - Jug · South - 8Gradski sportski centar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Zmaj Makarska33%

×Draw27%

HNK Zadar40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zmaj MakarskaExpected goals in this matchHNK Zadar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.32

Zmaj Makarska

1.19

HNK Zadar

1.32

HNK Zadar creates 11% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 77 away

1.28

creates per match

1.58

1.06

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Zmaj Makarska

1.28

HNK Zadar

1.58

allows per match

Zmaj Makarska

1.06

HNK Zadar

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zmaj Makarska+0.00on par

HNK Zadar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zmaj Makarska ↓

HNK Zadar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Zmaj Makarska or draw

60%

Zmaj Makarska or HNK Zadar

73%

Draw or HNK Zadar

67%

Winning margin

Zmaj Makarska wins by 2+

14%

HNK Zadar wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Zmaj Makarska 1+ goals

70%

Zmaj Makarska 2+ goals

33%

Zmaj Makarska 3+ goals

12%

HNK Zadar 1+ goals

73%

HNK Zadar 2+ goals

38%

HNK Zadar 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Zmaj Makarska (draw refunded)

46%

HNK Zadar (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zmaj Makarska at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.06 · 78 matches

HNK Zadar away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.09 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zmaj Makarska attack 1.28 + HNK Zadar defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.19

HNK Zadar attack 1.58 + Zmaj Makarska defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Zmaj Makarska scores more

33%

level

27%

HNK Zadar scores more

40%

HNK Zadar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "HNK Zadar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff