Zmaj Makarska 2–2 GOŠK Dubrovnik: Result & Stats

Zmaj Makarska

FT

2 – 2

GOŠK Dubrovnik

2/18/2023

Third NL - Jug · South - 16Gradski sportski centar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Zmaj Makarska51%

×Draw26%

GOŠK Dubrovnik24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zmaj MakarskaExpected goals in this matchGOŠK Dubrovnik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.96

Zmaj Makarska

1.54

GOŠK Dubrovnik

0.96

Zmaj Makarska creates 60% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 102 away

1.28

creates per match

0.86

1.06

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Zmaj Makarska

1.28

GOŠK Dubrovnik

0.86

allows per match

Zmaj Makarska

1.06

GOŠK Dubrovnik

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zmaj Makarska+0.00on par

GOŠK Dubrovnik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zmaj Makarska ↓

GOŠK Dubrovnik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Zmaj Makarska or draw

76%

Zmaj Makarska or GOŠK Dubrovnik

74%

Draw or GOŠK Dubrovnik

49%

Winning margin

Zmaj Makarska wins by 2+

26%

GOŠK Dubrovnik wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Zmaj Makarska 1+ goals

79%

Zmaj Makarska 2+ goals

45%

Zmaj Makarska 3+ goals

20%

GOŠK Dubrovnik 1+ goals

62%

GOŠK Dubrovnik 2+ goals

25%

GOŠK Dubrovnik 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Zmaj Makarska (draw refunded)

68%

GOŠK Dubrovnik (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zmaj Makarska at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.06 · 78 matches

GOŠK Dubrovnik away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.79 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zmaj Makarska attack 1.28 + GOŠK Dubrovnik defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.54

GOŠK Dubrovnik attack 0.86 + Zmaj Makarska defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Zmaj Makarska scores more

51%

level

26%

GOŠK Dubrovnik scores more

24%

Zmaj Makarska at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Zmaj Makarska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff