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Zmaj Blato vs Vodice — Third NL - Jug 2019

Zmaj Blato
Zmaj Blato
CANC
00:00
Vodice
Vodice
4/19/2020Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 24Igralište Zlinje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Zmaj Blato56%
×Draw23%
Vodice21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zmaj Blato
1.80
Vodice
1.00

Zmaj Blato creates 80% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 102 away

creates per match

Zmaj Blato
1.44
Vodice
0.92

allows per match

Zmaj Blato
1.08
Vodice
2.17

finishing

Zmaj Blato+0.00on par
Vodice+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zmaj Blato ↓

Vodice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Zmaj Blato or draw
79%
Zmaj Blato or Vodice
77%
Draw or Vodice
44%

Winning margin

Zmaj Blato wins by 2+
32%
Vodice wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Zmaj Blato 1+ goals
83%
Zmaj Blato 2+ goals
54%
Zmaj Blato 3+ goals
27%
Vodice 1+ goals
63%
Vodice 2+ goals
26%
Vodice 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zmaj Blato (draw refunded)
73%
Vodice (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zmaj Blato at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.08 · 25 matches

Vodice away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.17 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zmaj Blato attack 1.44 + Vodice defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.80

Vodice attack 0.92 + Zmaj Blato defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Zmaj Blato scores more
56%
level
23%
Vodice scores more
21%

Zmaj Blato at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Zmaj Blato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zmaj Blato vs Vodice — Match Preview

Zmaj Blato face Vodice on April 19, 2020 in this Third NL - Jug fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Zmaj Blato host Vodice at Igralište Zlinje.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.