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Zmaj Blato vs Sloga Mravince — Third NL - Jug 2019

Zmaj Blato
Zmaj Blato
FT
0 – 0
Sloga Mravince
Sloga Mravince
11/25/2020Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 14Igralište Zlinje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Zmaj Blato46%
×Draw25%
Sloga Mravince29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zmaj Blato
1.54
Sloga Mravince
1.17

Zmaj Blato creates 32% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 102 away

creates per match

Zmaj Blato
1.44
Sloga Mravince
1.25

allows per match

Zmaj Blato
1.08
Sloga Mravince
1.65

finishing

Zmaj Blato+0.00on par
Sloga Mravince+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zmaj Blato ↓

Sloga Mravince →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Zmaj Blato or draw
71%
Zmaj Blato or Sloga Mravince
75%
Draw or Sloga Mravince
54%

Winning margin

Zmaj Blato wins by 2+
23%
Sloga Mravince wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zmaj Blato 1+ goals
79%
Zmaj Blato 2+ goals
45%
Zmaj Blato 3+ goals
20%
Sloga Mravince 1+ goals
69%
Sloga Mravince 2+ goals
33%
Sloga Mravince 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zmaj Blato (draw refunded)
61%
Sloga Mravince (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zmaj Blato at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.08 · 25 matches

Sloga Mravince away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.65 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zmaj Blato attack 1.44 + Sloga Mravince defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.54

Sloga Mravince attack 1.25 + Zmaj Blato defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Zmaj Blato scores more
46%
level
25%
Sloga Mravince scores more
29%

Zmaj Blato at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Zmaj Blato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Zmaj Blato 0–0 Sloga Mravince

Zmaj Blato and Sloga Mravince drew 0-0 in Third NL - Jug on November 25, 2020.

The match was played at Igralište Zlinje in Blato.