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Zmaj Blato vs RNK Split — Third NL - Jug 2019

Zmaj Blato
Zmaj Blato
FT
3 – 3
RNK Split
RNK Split
9/26/2020Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 6Igralište Zlinje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Zmaj Blato46%
×Draw25%
RNK Split29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zmaj Blato
1.53
RNK Split
1.16

Zmaj Blato creates 32% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 57 away

creates per match

Zmaj Blato
1.44
RNK Split
1.23

allows per match

Zmaj Blato
1.08
RNK Split
1.63

finishing

Zmaj Blato+0.00on par
RNK Split+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zmaj Blato ↓

RNK Split →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Zmaj Blato or draw
71%
Zmaj Blato or RNK Split
75%
Draw or RNK Split
54%

Winning margin

Zmaj Blato wins by 2+
23%
RNK Split wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zmaj Blato 1+ goals
78%
Zmaj Blato 2+ goals
45%
Zmaj Blato 3+ goals
20%
RNK Split 1+ goals
69%
RNK Split 2+ goals
32%
RNK Split 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zmaj Blato (draw refunded)
61%
RNK Split (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zmaj Blato at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.08 · 25 matches

RNK Split away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.63 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zmaj Blato attack 1.44 + RNK Split defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.53

RNK Split attack 1.23 + Zmaj Blato defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Zmaj Blato scores more
46%
level
25%
RNK Split scores more
29%

Zmaj Blato at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Zmaj Blato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zmaj Blato vs RNK Split

Zmaj Blato and RNK Split drew 3-3 in Third NL - Jug on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Igralište Zlinje in Blato.