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Zmaj Blato vs Hrvatski vitez — Third NL - Jug 2019

Zmaj Blato
Zmaj Blato
FT
1 – 0
Hrvatski vitez
Hrvatski vitez
5/19/2021Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 30Igralište Zlinje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Zmaj Blato52%
×Draw24%
Hrvatski vitez24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zmaj Blato
1.71
Hrvatski vitez
1.10

Zmaj Blato creates 55% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 93 away

creates per match

Zmaj Blato
1.44
Hrvatski vitez
1.11

allows per match

Zmaj Blato
1.08
Hrvatski vitez
1.97

finishing

Zmaj Blato+0.00on par
Hrvatski vitez+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zmaj Blato ↓

Hrvatski vitez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Zmaj Blato or draw
76%
Zmaj Blato or Hrvatski vitez
76%
Draw or Hrvatski vitez
48%

Winning margin

Zmaj Blato wins by 2+
28%
Hrvatski vitez wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Zmaj Blato 1+ goals
82%
Zmaj Blato 2+ goals
51%
Zmaj Blato 3+ goals
24%
Hrvatski vitez 1+ goals
67%
Hrvatski vitez 2+ goals
30%
Hrvatski vitez 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Zmaj Blato (draw refunded)
68%
Hrvatski vitez (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zmaj Blato at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.08 · 25 matches

Hrvatski vitez away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.97 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zmaj Blato attack 1.44 + Hrvatski vitez defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.71

Hrvatski vitez attack 1.11 + Zmaj Blato defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Zmaj Blato scores more
52%
level
24%
Hrvatski vitez scores more
24%

Zmaj Blato at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Zmaj Blato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Zmaj Blato 1–0 Hrvatski vitez

Zmaj Blato beat Hrvatski vitez 1-0 in Third NL - Jug on May 19, 2021.

The match was played at Igralište Zlinje in Blato.