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Zmaj Blato vs GOŠK Dubrovnik — Third NL - Jug 2019

Zmaj Blato
Zmaj Blato
FT
1 – 1
GOŠK Dubrovnik
GOŠK Dubrovnik
3/20/2021Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 18Igralište Zlinje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Zmaj Blato52%
×Draw25%
GOŠK Dubrovnik23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zmaj Blato
1.61
GOŠK Dubrovnik
0.97

Zmaj Blato creates 66% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 102 away

creates per match

Zmaj Blato
1.44
GOŠK Dubrovnik
0.86

allows per match

Zmaj Blato
1.08
GOŠK Dubrovnik
1.79

finishing

Zmaj Blato+0.00on par
GOŠK Dubrovnik+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zmaj Blato ↓

GOŠK Dubrovnik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Zmaj Blato or draw
77%
Zmaj Blato or GOŠK Dubrovnik
75%
Draw or GOŠK Dubrovnik
48%

Winning margin

Zmaj Blato wins by 2+
28%
GOŠK Dubrovnik wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Zmaj Blato 1+ goals
80%
Zmaj Blato 2+ goals
48%
Zmaj Blato 3+ goals
22%
GOŠK Dubrovnik 1+ goals
62%
GOŠK Dubrovnik 2+ goals
25%
GOŠK Dubrovnik 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zmaj Blato (draw refunded)
70%
GOŠK Dubrovnik (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zmaj Blato at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.08 · 25 matches

GOŠK Dubrovnik away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.79 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zmaj Blato attack 1.44 + GOŠK Dubrovnik defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.61

GOŠK Dubrovnik attack 0.86 + Zmaj Blato defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Zmaj Blato scores more
52%
level
25%
GOŠK Dubrovnik scores more
23%

Zmaj Blato at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Zmaj Blato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zmaj Blato vs GOŠK Dubrovnik

Zmaj Blato and GOŠK Dubrovnik drew 1-1 in Third NL - Jug on March 20, 2021.

The match was played at Igralište Zlinje in Blato.