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Zlin vs Chrudim — FNL 2019

Zlin
Zlin
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Chrudim
Chrudim
11/4/2024FNLFNL · Round 15Stadion Letná

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zlin58%
×Draw24%
Chrudim18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zlin
1.65
Chrudim
0.80

Zlin creates 106% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 104 away

creates per match

Zlin
1.73
Chrudim
1.13

allows per match

Zlin
0.47
Chrudim
1.56

finishing

Zlin+0.00on par
Chrudim+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zlin ↓

Chrudim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Zlin or draw
82%
Zlin or Chrudim
76%
Draw or Chrudim
42%

Winning margin

Zlin wins by 2+
32%
Chrudim wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Zlin 1+ goals
81%
Zlin 2+ goals
49%
Zlin 3+ goals
23%
Chrudim 1+ goals
55%
Chrudim 2+ goals
19%
Chrudim 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Zlin (draw refunded)
76%
Chrudim (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zlin at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

Chrudim away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.56 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zlin attack 1.73 + Chrudim defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.65

Chrudim attack 1.13 + Zlin defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Zlin scores more
58%
level
24%
Chrudim scores more
18%

Zlin at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Zlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zlin vs Chrudim

Zlin beat Chrudim 2-0 in FNL on November 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Letná in Zlín.