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Zlin vs Baník Ostrava — Czech Liga 2019

Zlin
Zlin
Preview
15:00
Baník Ostrava
Baník Ostrava
7/25/2026Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 1Stadion Letna
Big match
48%
Zlin
model favours
48%24%28%

Baník Ostrava score first in only 24% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Zlin48%
×Draw24%
Baník Ostrava28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zlin
1.65
Baník Ostrava
1.20

Zlin creates 38% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

creates per match

Zlin
1.50
Baník Ostrava
1.08

allows per match

Zlin
1.32
Baník Ostrava
1.79

finishing

Zlin-0.50scores less
Baník Ostrava-0.20scores less

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zlin ↓

Baník Ostrava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Zlin or draw
72%
Zlin or Baník Ostrava
76%
Draw or Baník Ostrava
52%

Winning margin

Zlin wins by 2+
25%
Baník Ostrava wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Zlin 1+ goals
81%
Zlin 2+ goals
49%
Zlin 3+ goals
23%
Baník Ostrava 1+ goals
70%
Baník Ostrava 2+ goals
34%
Baník Ostrava 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Zlin (draw refunded)
63%
Baník Ostrava (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zlin at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.32 · 9 matches

Baník Ostrava away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.79 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zlin attack 1.50 + Baník Ostrava defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.65

Baník Ostrava attack 1.08 + Zlin defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Zlin scores more
48%
level
24%
Baník Ostrava scores more
28%

Zlin at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Zlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Zlin score first in only 33% of matches
  • Baník Ostrava win just 23% of their away games
  • 39% of Zlin’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 28% of Zlin’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • 33% of Baník Ostrava’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Zlin
Direct / counter-attacking
Baník Ostrava
Balanced
42%PossessionBiggest gap50%
70%Pass accuracy76%
9.8Shots10.8
1.36xG1.46
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ZlinBaník Ostrava

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Zlin
3
Draws
5
Baník Ostrava
Avg goals: 3.3BTTS: 70%
0–22–61–10–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Zlin
LWWLW
Ostrava
LLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Zlin host Baník Ostrava

July 25, 2026: Zlin take on Baník Ostrava in Czech Liga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Zlin host Baník Ostrava at Stadion Letna.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.