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Zlin vs Baník Ostrava — Czech Liga 2019

Zlin
Zlin
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Baník Ostrava
Baník Ostrava
3/3/2024Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 23Stadion Letná

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Zlin52%
×Draw24%
Baník Ostrava24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zlin
1.67
Baník Ostrava
1.04

Zlin creates 61% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Zlin
1.44
Baník Ostrava
1.04

allows per match

Zlin
1.04
Baník Ostrava
1.91

finishing

Zlin-0.44scores less
Baník Ostrava-0.04on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zlin ↓

Baník Ostrava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Zlin or draw
76%
Zlin or Baník Ostrava
76%
Draw or Baník Ostrava
48%

Winning margin

Zlin wins by 2+
28%
Baník Ostrava wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Zlin 1+ goals
81%
Zlin 2+ goals
50%
Zlin 3+ goals
23%
Baník Ostrava 1+ goals
65%
Baník Ostrava 2+ goals
28%
Baník Ostrava 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Zlin (draw refunded)
69%
Baník Ostrava (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zlin at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.04 · 6 matches

Baník Ostrava away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.91 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zlin attack 1.44 + Baník Ostrava defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.67

Baník Ostrava attack 1.04 + Zlin defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Zlin scores more
52%
level
24%
Baník Ostrava scores more
24%

Zlin at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Zlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: Zlin 0–1 Baník Ostrava

Baník Ostrava beat Zlin 1-0 in Czech Liga on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Letná in Zlín.