Zlín U19 5–2 Příbram U19: Result & Stats

Zlín U19

FT

5 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Příbram U19

D. Holub 77'

R. Ovesny 57'

D. Cervinka 53', 48'

P. Kulisek 22' (pen)

S. Razetto 89'

V. Plesl 86'

4/15/2022

1. Liga U19 · Round 21Areál Vlastislava Marečka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Zlín U1975%

×Draw14%

Příbram U1911%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zlín U19Expected goals in this matchPříbram U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.19

1.20

Zlín U19

3.19

Příbram U19

1.20

Zlín U19 creates 166% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 33 away

2.14

creates per match

0.85

1.54

allows per match

4.24

creates per match

Zlín U19

2.14

Příbram U19

0.85

allows per match

Zlín U19

1.54

Příbram U19

4.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zlín U19+0.00on par

Příbram U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zlín U19 ↓

Příbram U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–06%

4–17%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Zlín U19 or draw

89%

Zlín U19 or Příbram U19

86%

Draw or Příbram U19

25%

Winning margin

Zlín U19 wins by 2+

56%

Příbram U19 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Zlín U19 1+ goals

96%

Zlín U19 2+ goals

82%

Zlín U19 3+ goals

60%

Příbram U19 1+ goals

70%

Příbram U19 2+ goals

34%

Příbram U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Zlín U19 (draw refunded)

87%

Příbram U19 (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zlín U19 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.54 · 79 matches

Příbram U19 away — creates 0.85, concedes 4.24 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zlín U19 attack 2.14 + Příbram U19 defence 4.24 → ÷2 → 3.19

Příbram U19 attack 0.85 + Zlín U19 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Zlín U19 scores more

75%

level

14%

Příbram U19 scores more

11%

Zlín U19 at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Zlín U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

P. KulisekPenalty

48'

D. Cervinka

53'

D. Cervinka

57'

R. Ovesny

77'

D. Holub

86'

V. Plesl

89'

S. Razetto

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff