Zlín U19 2–2 České Budějovice U19: Result & Stats

Zlín U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

České Budějovice U19

5/31/2025

1. Liga U19 · Round 28Areál Vlastislava Marečka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Zlín U1949%

×Draw21%

České Budějovice U1930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zlín U19Expected goals in this matchČeské Budějovice U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.66

Zlín U19

2.15

České Budějovice U19

1.66

Zlín U19 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 80 away

2.14

creates per match

1.77

1.54

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Zlín U19

2.14

České Budějovice U19

1.77

allows per match

Zlín U19

1.54

České Budějovice U19

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zlín U19+0.00on par

České Budějovice U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zlín U19 ↓

České Budějovice U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Zlín U19 or draw

70%

Zlín U19 or České Budějovice U19

79%

Draw or České Budějovice U19

51%

Winning margin

Zlín U19 wins by 2+

29%

České Budějovice U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Zlín U19 1+ goals

88%

Zlín U19 2+ goals

63%

Zlín U19 3+ goals

36%

České Budějovice U19 1+ goals

81%

České Budějovice U19 2+ goals

49%

České Budějovice U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Zlín U19 (draw refunded)

62%

České Budějovice U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zlín U19 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.54 · 79 matches

České Budějovice U19 away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.15 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zlín U19 attack 2.14 + České Budějovice U19 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.15

České Budějovice U19 attack 1.77 + Zlín U19 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Zlín U19 scores more

49%

level

21%

České Budějovice U19 scores more

30%

Zlín U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Zlín U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff