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Zlín II vs Vyškov — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Zlín II
Zlín II
FT
1 – 1
Vyškov
Vyškov
8/25/20193. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 4Stadion Luhačovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Zlín II42%
×Draw25%
Vyškov33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zlín II
1.52
Vyškov
1.31

Zlín II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 16 away

creates per match

Zlín II
1.72
Vyškov
1.25

allows per match

Zlín II
1.36
Vyškov
1.31

finishing

Zlín II+0.00on par
Vyškov+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zlín II ↓

Vyškov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Zlín II or draw
67%
Zlín II or Vyškov
75%
Draw or Vyškov
58%

Winning margin

Zlín II wins by 2+
21%
Vyškov wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Zlín II 1+ goals
78%
Zlín II 2+ goals
45%
Zlín II 3+ goals
20%
Vyškov 1+ goals
73%
Vyškov 2+ goals
38%
Vyškov 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Zlín II (draw refunded)
56%
Vyškov (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zlín II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.36 · 81 matches

Vyškov away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zlín II attack 1.72 + Vyškov defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.52

Vyškov attack 1.25 + Zlín II defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zlín II scores more
42%
level
25%
Vyškov scores more
33%

Zlín II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zlín II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Zlín II 1–1 Vyškov

Zlín II and Vyškov drew 1-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on August 25, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Luhačovice in Luhačovice.