Zlín II 1–3 Slovan Rosice: Result & Stats

Zlín II

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Slovan Rosice

D. Trtek 26'

D. Kotasek 55'

T. Zezula 29'

J. Cerny 4'

10/9/2022

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 10Areál Vlastislava Marečka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Zlín II41%

×Draw25%

Slovan Rosice34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zlín IIExpected goals in this matchSlovan Rosice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.31

Zlín II

1.48

Slovan Rosice

1.31

Zlín II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 66 away

1.72

creates per match

1.27

1.36

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Zlín II

1.72

Slovan Rosice

1.27

allows per match

Zlín II

1.36

Slovan Rosice

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zlín II+0.00on par

Slovan Rosice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zlín II ↓

Slovan Rosice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Zlín II or draw

66%

Zlín II or Slovan Rosice

75%

Draw or Slovan Rosice

59%

Winning margin

Zlín II wins by 2+

20%

Slovan Rosice wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Zlín II 1+ goals

77%

Zlín II 2+ goals

43%

Zlín II 3+ goals

19%

Slovan Rosice 1+ goals

73%

Slovan Rosice 2+ goals

38%

Slovan Rosice 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Zlín II (draw refunded)

55%

Slovan Rosice (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zlín II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.36 · 81 matches

Slovan Rosice away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.24 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zlín II attack 1.72 + Slovan Rosice defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.48

Slovan Rosice attack 1.27 + Zlín II defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zlín II scores more

41%

level

25%

Slovan Rosice scores more

34%

Zlín II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zlín II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

J. Cerny

26'

D. Trtek

29'

T. Zezula

37'

J. Krejci

55'

D. Kotasek

62'

V. Mlynek← D. Cervinka

62'

J. Novak← J. Novak

67'

E. Sedlacek← E. Sedlacek

69'

P. Kulisek

77'

M. Kozel← M. Kozel

80'

T. Uhrik← T. Uhrik

80'

T. Chrudina← T. Chrudina

82'

D. Valenta

86'

P. Kulisek← P. Honig

86'

M. Krsak← M. Krsak

86'

D. Prerovsky← D. Prerovsky

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff