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Zlín II vs Dolní Benešov — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Zlín II
Zlín II
FT
6 – 3
Dolní Benešov
Dolní Benešov
9/15/20193. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 7Stadion Radostov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Zlín II60%
×Draw20%
Dolní Benešov20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zlín II
2.23
Dolní Benešov
1.22

Zlín II creates 83% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 26 away

creates per match

Zlín II
1.72
Dolní Benešov
1.08

allows per match

Zlín II
1.36
Dolní Benešov
2.73

finishing

Zlín II+0.00on par
Dolní Benešov+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zlín II ↓

Dolní Benešov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Zlín II or draw
80%
Zlín II or Dolní Benešov
80%
Draw or Dolní Benešov
40%

Winning margin

Zlín II wins by 2+
38%
Dolní Benešov wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Zlín II 1+ goals
89%
Zlín II 2+ goals
65%
Zlín II 3+ goals
38%
Dolní Benešov 1+ goals
70%
Dolní Benešov 2+ goals
34%
Dolní Benešov 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Zlín II (draw refunded)
75%
Dolní Benešov (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zlín II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.36 · 81 matches

Dolní Benešov away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zlín II attack 1.72 + Dolní Benešov defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.23

Dolní Benešov attack 1.08 + Zlín II defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Zlín II scores more
60%
level
20%
Dolní Benešov scores more
20%

Zlín II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Zlín II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Zlín II 6–3 Dolní Benešov

Zlín II beat Dolní Benešov 6-3 in 3. liga - MSFL on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Radostov in Luhačovice.